The devastating Bhotekoshi flood has once again exposed the growing risks posed by Himalayan rivers, glaciers and glacial lakes. For communities living along these rivers, discussions about glacial avalanches and glacial lake outburst floods are not academic exercises. They are matters of life, death and survival. The disaster should therefore not be treated as an isolated event. It should serve as a warning that Nepal needs to strengthen its systems for identifying, monitoring and mitigating emerging risks before they turn into disasters. There is a useful lesson in the approach recently taken by Nepal Rastra Bank (NRB). The central bank has revised its risk-management framework for banks and financial institutions (BFIs), requiring them to account not only for conventional risks such as credit, liquidity, market and interest-rate risks, but also for emerging threats linked to climate change, artificial intelligence, digitalisation, cybersecurity and operational resilience. Through its new Risk Management Guidelines, the NRB has asked BFIs to adopt comprehensive risk-management programmes suited to their size, complexity and operating environment. It has also clarified the responsibilities of boards, senior management, risk-management committees and internal audit systems in managing different categories of risk. The underlying message is clear: risk management cannot remain a compliance exercise; it must become an integral part of institutional decision-making and strategy.
Bhotekoshi flood exposes Nepal’s warning system, raises questio...
Nepal's disaster-management system needs a similar shift in thinking. The Bhotekoshi disaster should particularly concern communities along other Himalayan rivers and their tributaries, including the Koshi, Kali Gandaki, Budhi Gandaki and Marsyangdi. Stakeholders have long warned of the dangers posed by potentially unstable glacial lakes such as Tsho Rolpa. A breach could cause catastrophic damage to settlements and infrastructure downstream in the Tamakoshi corridor. Communities and infrastructure located along rivers where hydropower projects have been developed may be especially vulnerable. Nepal's major river systems originate largely in the Himalayas. The Koshi, Gandaki and Karnali, together with their tributaries, connect fragile mountain environments with densely populated settlements and critical infrastructure downstream. Rising temperatures and changes in the Himalayan environment are increasing concerns about glacial instability, avalanches and glacial lake outburst floods. Yet many high-altitude river systems and glacial lakes remain inadequately studied. The challenge is compounded by the fact that many of Nepal's major Himalayan rivers originate in Tibet, China. Access to upstream information is therefore dependent on cross-border cooperation. Nepal should continue pursuing information-sharing arrangements with China and India through bilateral, trilateral and multilateral channels. If trilateral cooperation remains difficult, Nepal should pursue practical bilateral arrangements for collecting, analysing and sharing information on glaciers, river flows and potential hazards.
But Nepal should not wait for perfect international cooperation before acting. It can begin developing reliable systems for monitoring vulnerable rivers and disseminating warnings to downstream communities. Provincial governments should take the lead in coordinating such efforts with local governments, security agencies, scientists, hydropower operators and communities. Local governments can pool resources to establish communication networks and emergency response mechanisms suited to their respective river basins. The government should also encourage universities, researchers and international scientific institutions to support monitoring and risk assessment. Pilot early-warning systems in high-risk corridors could provide valuable lessons for expansion across the country. The Bhotekoshi disaster has shown that the risks associated with Himalayan rivers can no longer be treated as remote possibilities. As the NRB has recognised in the financial sector, effective risk management requires identifying emerging threats and preparing for them before they become crises. Nepal must apply the same principle to its Himalayan river systems. Many disasters strike without warning. Floods, however, can provide at least some opportunity for detection and response. If timely information can save lives, there is no justification for remaining inactive.
