China’s 15th Five-Year Plan: Charting the Path to Modernization and Global Influence

The fourth plenary session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China was held in Beijing from October 20 to 23, 2025. The President of the People’s Republic of China and General Secretary of the Central Committee, Xi Jinping, chaired the meeting, which was attended by more than 350 delegates, including 168 Central Committee members, 147 alternate members, and other observers. The plenary session discussed the work report delivered by President Xi Jinping, assigned by the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee, and approved the proposal of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development.

Apart from regular agenda items, the recommended guidelines for the formulation of the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development (2026–2030) are of particular interest. This article presents the key recommendations and highlights the possible implications for Nepal.

According to the recommendations, the ongoing 14th Five-Year Plan’s performance was reviewed, and the period was described as extremely unusual and extraordinary due to complex international conditions, domestic reforms, the unexpected pandemic, and rapid technological advancements. Nevertheless, China achieved significant progress in economic stability and growth, scientific and technological capacity, and comprehensive national development, thereby advancing Chinese-style modernization and reinforcing China’s role both domestically and internationally.

Given the current status of economic and social development, the "15th Five-Year Plan" is considered a critical period for accomplishing the basic realization of socialist modernization. During this period, China will face profound and complex changes that present both strategic opportunities and challenges. Accordingly, China has proposed six core principles and seven major objectives for the upcoming plan. The plan will adhere to the following principles: party leadership, prioritizing people’s interests, high-quality development, deepening reform, combining an effective market with a capable government, and ensuring coordinated development and security.

Similarly, the plenary session outlined the primary objectives for the 15th Five-Year Plan period: achieving significant progress in high-quality development, strengthening scientific and technological self-reliance, making breakthroughs in comprehensive reforms, enhancing cultural advancement, improving quality of life, advancing ecological civilization, and reinforcing national security. Based on these goals, China aims to significantly enhance national economic, technological, and defense capabilities; raise per capita GDP to the level of moderately developed countries; and substantially improve citizens’ wellbeing, thereby laying the foundation for fully realizing socialist modernization.

The plenary session recommended twelve thematic areas to guide the National Development and Reform Commission in formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan. These areas encompass developing a modern industrial system and strengthening the real economy, achieving greater self-reliance in science and technology while promoting new productive forces, and reinforcing the domestic market to foster a new development pattern. They also focus on advancing a high-standard socialist market economy, promoting high-standard opening-up for mutually beneficial cooperation, and accelerating agricultural and rural modernization. Additionally, the plan emphasizes improving regional development coordination, promoting cultural creativity and a thriving socialist culture, enhancing public wellbeing to advance common prosperity, and driving green transformation alongside ecological civilization. Finally, it aims to modernize national security systems to ensure a peaceful China and to strengthen national defense while achieving the centenary goals of the People’s Liberation Army. These thematic areas aim to advance Chinese-style socialist modernization by 2035. To achieve this, the session emphasized mobilizing the entire party and the Chinese people towards common objectives.

Based on these recommendations, the NDRC will prepare a detailed plan in 2026. The specific implications will be clear only after the plan is formally approved by the National People’s Congress. However, the guiding themes suggest potential impacts on Nepal’s economy and governance. Areas likely to be affected include domestic economic activity, foreign investment, market access, product standards, and governance practices. China’s commitment to wider opening-up may bring substantial investment to Nepal, particularly in services and technological innovation sectors. Since 2016/17, China has become a major destination for Nepali students, and its increased focus on talent and innovation could create opportunities for Nepal. China’s emphasis on climate action and alternative energy to achieve carbon neutrality also presents potential areas of cooperation.

Additionally, China’s people-centred urbanization, digital China initiative, healthy China policy, and ecological civilization framework offer valuable lessons for Nepal’s development. Overall, the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030) will emphasize large-scale reforms, innovation-driven development, improved living standards, enhanced national security, efficient public service delivery, and the advancement of President Xi’s vision of Chinese-style socialist governance.

(The author is an economist and public policy expert. He can be reached at sudankumaroli@gmail.com)