The impact of recent earthquakes on food production is vast and of both short- and long-term consequences. Farmers are missing plantation season of rice—the country's staple food—that normally starts from late May. Although maize, the second staple crop for mid-hill districts, has been planted in most districts, production seems to be decreased as drought has resulted in wilting of standing crop. Food production is also going to be affected in the long-run as agricultural land is lost due to landslides.
If monsoon is delayed by a week, the area under rice will be reduced significantly. Widespread seed losses and damage to agricultural tools are also a major concern and will reduce crop production significantly. Although wheat production in 2015 is forecasted to increase 10 percent, farmers of earthquake-hit districts have no place to store it. Thus disruption of planting and drought may severely reduce both planting area and production, resulting in less food. This, together with huge losses of food stocks due to damages of houses by the earthquake, would severely limit food supplies.
Food security across the quake-affected areas is a key concern. Almost 70 percent of households have seen partial or total loss of their food stock. Using baseline data on average food stocks available at this time of the year, this translates into an estimated total loss of 135,187 metric tons of different food commodities. The Food and Agriculture Organization reckons the tremor has left some 3.5 million people in need of food assistance.
According to estimates, less than 8 million tons of food will be produced in the current fiscal year. Of the total output, about 3.237 million tons need to be separated for seeds, animal feed and post-harvest losses. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, the country's annual food requirement is 5.4 million tons. The calculation is based on the consumption rate of 191 kg per person per year. This indicates that there will be more than 0.5 million tons of food shortage. As India is also expected to have food problems of its own due to the drought, imports from India may not be possible. The buffer stock of the Nepal Food Corporation (NFC) has already been distributed to earthquake victims. So in the absence of a coping strategy, the situation could deteriorate very rapidly.
This is transitory food insecurity. But if timely measures are not taken to control such food insecurity, it may take the form of a famine. Realizing this, experts have suggested that the government maintain at least 500,000 tons of buffer stock to cope with expected abnormal food crisis from recent earthquakes and drought.
It is the responsibility of the government to maintain sufficient stock of cereal grains, including rice, to deal with scarcity of food due to such natural calamities. The government should have buffer stocks to cope with such situations. NFC has also been adopting such a policy. But it has limited warehouses and weak management. It is, therefore, suggested that existing NFC's warehouse system be upgraded and its management strengthened, in addition to encouraging private sector to reserve certain portion of their stocks for emergency purposes.
Another important issue is ensuring that poor people have access to such buffer stock. There are reports that relief materials distributed post-quake have not reached the needy ones in remote areas. Although the government is emphasizing one-window system of distribution, it is not so effective. The distribution system of Nepal has several limitations. Without involvement of both the government and private sector, these challenges cannot be addressed. Here the cooperation of INGOs, NGOs, and donor agencies is important.
Since there is little hope of increasing or even maintaining production level this year, food shortage is going to appear as a serious problem. Hence the government needs to formulate and implement short-term food security programs. In this context, the first priority should be buffer stocking of food in required amounts. The issue of poor accessibility of many districts, particularly in remote areas, is also important. Poor and earthquake affected people should be given access to buffer stocks at subsidized prices. Another option could be provision of emergency food aid to those most in need.
Given Nepal's fragile topography, and excessive land pressure due to slope-cropping, grazing animals, deforestation, and excavation, there is a huge loss of surface soil through erosion. In the long run, Nepal must, therefore, develop and promote technologies for conservation agriculture. Fruit and fodder trees should be planted on slopes and degraded lands and a stall-feeding system for livestock should be promoted to reduce soil erosion and prevent manure loss.
bhairabr@gmail.com
Related story
Eating junk food is bad for health!
