KATHMANDU, Feb 23: The electoral atmosphere in all three House of Representatives (HoR) constituencies of Banke appears markedly different from previous elections. For decades, the district’s politics was dominated by the Nepali Congress (NC) and CPN-UML, along with the former Nepal Communist Party (NCP). This time, however, the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) has created a new political wave.
Although organizationally weaker than traditional parties, the appeal of the “bell” election symbol, public dissatisfaction toward old parties, and the leadership style demonstrated by Kathmandu Metropolitan City Mayor Balen Shah have influenced even rural areas of Banke.
While RSP’s victory is not assured in any constituency, its presence has clearly generated concern among established parties. In constituencies 1, 2, and 3, differing ethnic, geographic, and political dynamics have made RSP a potentially decisive force. A viral video from Banke-1 shows UML candidate Surya Dhakal expressing dissatisfaction, claiming that online support for the “bell” symbol is driven by fake social media accounts.
Political analysts say such statements reflect the pressure traditional parties are facing. Many voters appear to have already decided which party they will not vote for, rather than focusing on candidate profiles. Some openly say they do not know the candidates but will vote only for the “bell.” This psychology is centered around the “Balen and Rabi Lamichhane factor.” Balen’s governance style in Kathmandu — managing public spaces, removing unauthorized structures, and maintaining direct communication through social media — has resonated beyond the capital. Even rural voters in Banke appear to be seeking “Balen-like leadership.”
Banke-1
In Banke-1, RSP candidate Suresh Kumar Chaudhary is contesting. In the 2022 election, he ran under the Nagarik Unmukti Party and secured 11,465 votes, finishing third. UML’s Surya Dhakal won with 25,026 votes. This time, Chaudhary is contesting under RSP.
Although he has switched parties, his previous voter base combined with the RSP brand and the Balen factor has strengthened his position. However, Dhakal remains a strong candidate with organizational backing and experience. NC district president Narayan Gaudel is also a competitive contender, though internal party differences pose challenges.
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Kohalpur is considered the decisive geography in this constituency. With a mixed population due to migration from various districts, voting patterns are fluid. Though UML was strong previously, there is growing voter inclination toward change.
Analysts suggest that while an RSP win is not impossible, breaking the consolidated votes of UML and Congress will be difficult. The constituency is therefore viewed as highly competitive.
Banke-2
In Banke-2, Madhesi votes play a decisive role, making electoral dynamics more complex. UML candidate Mohammad Istiyak Rai is regarded as a strong leader within the Madhesi community with significant personal influence. Another candidate, Kamaruddin Rai, resigned as deputy mayor of Nepalgunj Sub-Metropolitan City to contest, relying on his local governance experience.
NC has fielded Sudhanshu Koirala, a relatively young and controversy-free candidate popular among youth. CPN candidate Dipendra Bista also represents youth interests, raising the possibility of youth votes splitting across parties.
RSP’s candidate is Bibek Kumar Shrestha. While RSP’s victory cannot be fully ruled out, the relatively stable Madhesi voting pattern makes this constituency particularly challenging. However, growing dissatisfaction with traditional parties and youth frustration could alter the equation at the last moment.
Banke-3
Among the three, Banke-3 is considered RSP’s strongest constituency. Khagendra Sunar, an RSP candidate and Dalit rights activist, is in the race. Based on internal assessments and public discourse, there is a strong perception that his victory is likely, though elections remain unpredictable.
His main competitors are NC candidate Amar Singh Pun and UML’s Suman Malla. NC won this constituency in the previous election, so it cannot be underestimated.
Three main factors strengthen Sunar’s candidacy. First is internal dissatisfaction within UML. Although Dal Bahadur Sunar was recommended locally, Suman Malla reportedly received the ticket directly from party headquarters, causing discontent among local cadres.
Second is the decisive Dalit vote. As a long-time Dalit rights advocate, Khagendra is expected to attract significant Dalit support. Disgruntled Dalit voters within UML may also shift toward him. Additionally, the constituency has a significant population with roots in Dailekh, and Khagendra’s background may help him attract regional votes.
Third is RSP’s growing popularity. Dissatisfaction with traditional parties, desire for new faces, and Balen Shah’s popularity have further strengthened his candidacy. However, RSP’s weak organizational structure compared to NC and UML means last-minute vote management by traditional parties could still reverse the outcome.
RSP’s 2022 performance in Banke
In the 2022 general election, RSP contested in Banke with limited organization, minimal campaigning, and as a newly formed party. Voter trust was still in a testing phase. However, the results suggest that a “silent base” had already begun forming.
In Banke-1, RSP candidate Anand Babu Kafle secured 10,071 direct votes. Though insufficient to win, this was notable for a new party in a traditionally NC-UML stronghold. In proportional representation, RSP received 8,892 votes, reflecting broader party support beyond individual candidates.
In Banke-2, RSP secured only 1,333 direct votes. On the surface, this appears weak, but the constituency’s strong Madheshi political roots made it difficult for a new party. However, 4,103 proportional votes indicate that many voters chose the party symbol even without familiarity with the candidate — suggesting the presence of a silent vote bank, particularly among youth and urban voters.
In Banke-3, RSP’s performance was comparatively balanced, securing 7,467 direct votes and 6,473 proportional votes. This constituency, where Dalit votes are decisive and political awareness is high, showed that RSP’s message of social justice and new political culture had gained traction. The small gap between direct and proportional votes suggests acceptance of both the candidate and the party.
