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The World Must Be Part of Nepal's Future

Preparing for the next Himalayan disaster requires data sharing with Nepal’s neighbors, wider international support for scientific monitoring and transparent planning within Nepal.
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By Ram C Acharya

The catastrophic flash flood that struck Nepal on August 26 brought me back to the hills of my childhood, where the Himalayas stood on the horizon almost every clear day. They were simply part of my surroundings. Yet I rarely stopped to look at them. The struggle to meet daily necessities consumed our attention, leaving little room to recognize the landscape as something to pause and enjoy. I suspect many Nepalis of my generation would say the same.



After settling in Canada, I saw the mountains differently on visits home. I became eager to see them up close and took pleasure in the sight. They appeared darker and less snowy than I remembered, although my visits did not take place during the snowy season. Whether the timing explained the difference, I cannot say; it was only a personal impression.


The flood changed their meaning. Watching water and debris tear through valleys and settlements and seeing the horrifying human toll,I could no longer look at the Himalayas with wonder alone. They now evoke fear, even on a television screen. What if another mountainside gives way? I found myself asking what this new danger means for those who live beneath the mountains.


At the time of writing, more than 1,400 people had been confirmed dead, while more than six thousand remained missing. The horror lay not only in the number of lives lost but in the way the disaster arrived. Nepalis have long lived with massive earthquakes, frequent landslides and monsoon floods. But this catastrophe followed no familiar pattern. Rock and ice gave way high in the Himalayas, sending destruction downstream with almost no time to escape. For many, the fear will outlast the floodwaters, returning at night with a single question: What if another mountainside gives way?


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Beyond its horrific human toll, the flood swept away settlements, roads and bridges and damaged homes, schools, power networks and at least 12 hydropower projects. Preliminary estimates put direct losses at US$2.6 billion, while reconstruction could cost $5 billion, one-tenth of Nepal’s annual economic output. For a country with GDP per person of only about$1,536, less than 2% per capitaGDP of the United States, this is a national setback Nepal can scarcely afford.


Researchers now believe that a slab of bedrock covering roughly 2.2 square kilometers broke away from Langtang Lirung, carrying glacier ice with it. The falling mass contained an estimated 110 million cubic meters of rock and ice. It became a dense torrent of rock, mud and water that raced down the valley at more than 160 kilometers an hour, destroying entire villages in its path.


Scientists understand the sequence better than the trigger. What set the slope in motion remains under study; geology, glacier movement, meltwater and short-term weather may all have contributed. It would be premature to say that climate change alone caused this collapse. Yet it would be equally mistaken to separate it from a warming Himalaya. Rising temperatures are shrinking glaciers and thawing permafrost, the frozen material that helps bind high mountain slopes. We may not know whether warming triggered this event, but it is making disasters like it more likely.


The disaster exposed the limits of Nepal’s preparedness. A rock-and-ice cascade moving at extraordinary speed left little time to warn or evacuate communities concentrated in narrow river valleys. It also laid bare a painful development dilemma: Nepal needs hydropower for electricity and growth, yet dams, tunnels and work sites are concentrated beside increasingly hazardous mountain rivers. The answer is not to abandon hydropower, but to reassess where and how projects are built and protect workers and downstream communities from cascading hazards.


From afar, the Himalayas are often reduced to Everest, trekking routes and photographs of snow-covered peaks. They are indeed a global treasure. For Nepalis, however, they are also inhabited terrain: home, livelihood and memory. When that landscape becomes a source of danger, the damage reaches beyond property, eroding security, belonging and trust in the place people call home.


The stakes extend beyond Nepal’s borders. Ten major river systems have their source in the wider Hindu Kush Himalaya and provide water to roughly1.9 billion people.Nepal is home to roughly 0.4 percent of the world’s population but accounts for only about 0.1 percent of global greenhouse-gas emissions. The point is not to assign blame, but to show why preparing for Himalayan risk must be a shared regional and global undertaking.


What Nepal now needs is a Himalayan Resilience Compact: a partnership that endures after rescue teams leave and headlines fade. It should rest on four commitments. First, the international community should provide grants to rebuild essential infrastructure to safer standards, rather than loans that would deepen the economic hardship caused by the disaster. Second, Nepal, China and India should establish a system for rapidly sharing satellite, weather and river data across their borders. Third, international scientific partners should help Nepal expand the monitoring of glaciers and unstable slopes. Fourth, with international support, Nepal must turn that knowledge into warnings people can use: mobile alerts, marked evacuation routes, and safe shelters. A warning in a distant office is useless if it never reaches the family downstream.


Partnership must be matched by responsibility within Nepal. Every reconstruction grant and contract should be publicly traceable. Hazard maps, not political convenience, must guide where settlements, schools, roads and hydropower projects are rebuilt. Affected communities must participate in those decisions before plans are finalized. International partners can provide money, science and technology, but Nepal must use them honestly, fairly and with the next disaster in mind. It must not reconstruct the same vulnerabilities.


When I look at the Himalayas now, I see both the familiar horizon of my childhood and the torrent of rock, ice and water that descended on August 26. But fear must not become synonymous with the mountains. I want future generations of Nepalis to regard the Himalayas as a source of identity, water and beauty, not as a catastrophe waiting above their homes. The world should share that hope and help make it possible. Doing so will require foresight and accountability within Nepal and sustained partnership beyond it. The world must be part of Nepal’s future, part of its preparedness and reconstruction, not merely its mourning.


The author is an economist who writes on economic issues in Nepal and Canada. He can be reached at acharya.ramc@gmail.com.

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