Despite his insightful knowledge and close and personal experience of the Maoists’ ideological and working dynamics, Khanal hoped that Maoist Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal, the shrewd revolutionary-turned-pragmatist, will rescue him from the resignation trap. Whether because of Maoists’ internal wrangling over the issue or because of Dahal’s usual duplicity, his optimism went awry.
His confidence was based on certain assumptions. They were: First, both Dahal and the powerful Senior Vice-Chairman Mohan Baidya won’t risk to sacrifice him as he, as PM, has been extremely useful for them. Second, they will somehow respond to his call to come up with a concrete plan of action and time-table for peace building, as failure to do so would lead to his resignation that in turn would result in Dr Baburam Bhattarai’s accession to premiership; and he knew better than anybody else that both Dahal and Baidya preferred him to Bhattarai for the job, despite their public stance to the contrary.
Third, the resignation card would default, if not defuse, the mounting pressure for resignation from within his own party. Fourth, with a resignation on hold, he would calm the opposition forces and even tempt some aspirants among them like Sher Bahadur Deuba to try his luck hence fueling in fights among their ranks. Through his informal dealings, he also knew that the Sushil Koirala-Ram Chandra Poudel faction of Nepali Congress (NC) known as the ‘establishment camp’ was, despite its public stand to the contrary, not genuinely interested in his resignation, mainly because of the possible scuffles the opportunity would bring within the party. (It’s a different thing that he dishonestly blamed NC for his resignation while addressing the parliament the day after his resignation).
Calculations aside, Khanal’s resignation announcement was also triggered somewhat by impulse, which was to make history by demonstrating his efforts to make peace. The impulse boomeranged. Except him and Dahal, nobody else knows whether he made the pledge to resign on his own, without consulting Dahal, or not. Given his lust for power and his dependency on Dahal to remain in power, it is most unlikely that he acted on his own. So, when he sought Dahal’s concurrence on his pledge to resign, in all likeliness Dahal should have nodded; for, it is everybody’s knowledge that Dahal promises exactly what the person he is talking to wants to hear, but at the end of the day he does what best suits him.
Because of the fluid and the dirty politics that prevails in the country, it will be no wonder if a tried, tested and failed Deuba will for the fourth time be voted to premiership once the deadline set by the president to form a national consensus government expires on August 21.
During over two years since he resigned from premiership, Dahal applied every tool at his disposal to return to power; despite that, he is now at the most unlikely juncture of time and situation to succeed Khanal as his party has ‘unanimously’ proposed Bhattarai as the next prime-ministerial candidate. Therefore the secret understanding reached some seven months before between Dahal and Khanal while signing the seven-point pact on power sharing under which both would be prime ministers on a turn by turn basis doesn’t hold good for Dahal now. Besides, the pact that met with severe suspicion, criticism and protests both from his intra- and inter-party rivals, was nullified by a new five point deal which pleads, among other things, for Khanal’s resignation ‘to pave the way for national consensus’.
Events superseded both Khanal’s calculations to remain in power and Dahal’s plans to return to power. Dahal, who almost single-handedly and with an unbridled authority has run the party since the Nepal Communist Party (Mashal) days, has for the first time in 25 years been marginalized by a new arrangement of collective leadership thrust upon him by his allies-turned-rivals. And, as part of the arrangement now, Bhattarai is the party candidate for premiership. On his part, Khanal too grossly underassessed the challenges that would come from his party; he could not estimate the scale and intensity of resentment that was growing in all levels of party forums on account of his opaque and deep entrenched relationship with the Maoists. As he went on succumbing to the Maoist demands one after another, often defying the party directives, in the name of saving the coalition, more and more of his supporters deserted him, although the grumbles of some of them like Ishwor Pokharel – the party general secretary – was not on merit; they were angered because they could not enjoy a ministerial berth or similar benefits.
Had the Maoist party not designated Bhattarai as the party’s candidate for premiership, time and situation would have been perfect for Dahal to succeed Khanal. And, as a leader who is ambitious, able, presentable and more acceptable to general people and the international community than any other leader in the party including Dahal himself, Bhattarai is the last person the former wants to see as prime minister. If history is anything to go by, in revolutionary communist hierarchies/parties, those qualities may cost leaders their lives or careers; even those who luckily escape the fate of Leon Trotsky may meet the fate of Liu Shao Qi. So far, the open and democratic polity of the nation, coupled with the geopolitical factor, has saved Bhattarai.
It is not that Khanal has no silver lining. Take for instance Sher Bahadur Deuba, the typical dark cloud of Nepal’s political landscape, who would never have promised to resign the way Khanal did, unless absolutely compelled to do so. And, Deuba is now hell-bent to replace Poudel as the leader of the NC parliamentary party so as to become PM as intimated by Dahal. As far as Dahal is concerned, if he himself cannot get the job, Deuba, and not Bhattarai, is his choice for premiership, albeit discreetly. The reasons are twofold: One, the fear of being replaced, further weakened or sidelined by a strong successor, and two, the criteria of usefulness. Now that the usefulness of Khanal is over, Deuba, although a staunch anti-communist, may prove the most useful person, just like the late Girija Prasad Koirala was the most useful politician for Dahal and his party despite his anti-communist credentials.
Dahal knows very well that Deuba is capable of making any compromise to cling on to power even if means damaging his party, the people or the nation. So, because of the fluid and the dirty politics that prevails in the country, it will be no wonder if a tried, tested and failed Deuba will for the fourth time be voted to premiership once the deadline set by the president to form a national consensus government expires on August 21.
jeevan1952@hotmail.com
Related story
Achyut Potdar, veteran actor and 3 Idiots professor, dies at 91
