As a Madhesi myself, I can empathize with the fear of dividing the Tarai belt into a number of provinces. Division of the Tarai belt would severely weaken the bargaining power of Madhesis (and their leaders). With a weak bargaining power, and with an already limited access to power, the success of Madhesi revolution could be pushed back by another 50 years. This is a valid fear and needs to be taken into consideration. But, equally valid are the fears of other groups living in the Tarai, which need to be considered as well.
Trying to force upon a model, which 50 percent or even more people don’t feel comfortable with, is unfair. It is undemocratic. It is a recipe for political unrest.
About 50 percent, if not more, of those living in the Tarai do not identify themselves as Madhesis. The idea of One Madhes, One Pradesh raises fear among the Nepali-speaking population who fear backlash by overzealous Madhesi activists, or possibly a systematic state-sponsored discrimination (similar to what Madhesis have been facing so far). The Tharus fear that their problems are less likely to be addressed than in a separate state with a majority Tharu population. These are all valid fears.
Trying to force upon a model, which 50 percent or even more people don’t feel comfortable with, is unfair. It is undemocratic. It is a recipe for political unrest.
With the entire Tarai belt as one state, the voices of Tharus who represent a significant part of the Tarai population may not be addressed adequately. There is a fear that Nepali-speaking people will feel insecure. There is a fear of Hindi-ization of the entire Tarai belt, against the will of Tharus, Awadhs, Maithils and Nepalis, who would prefer to see their own languages and cultures flourish, rather than it be clouded under the umbrella of Hindi.
Moreover, it is quite possible that even if a single Madhes were to be created, it would break down into a number of states anyway. The worst part is that this would come after another round of struggle in Tarai with strikes and rebellion for at least another decade. Do we really want another round of strikes and rebellion in the Tarai belt? Many Madhesi leaders have suggested that there would be sub-provinces within the large one Madhes Pradesh to address the concern of various groups. Not surprisingly, this has not alleviated the fears of many non-Madhesi groups living in the Tarai belt.
The only group that will surely benefit is that of the current prominent Madhesi leaders. They will rise to be national players overnight. While diversity at the top level of decision making is going to help Nepal tremendously, doing so at the expense of forcing the entire Tarai belt as one province is just too costly.
Madhesis also need to shift their focus from what has happened in the past, to what will make our country more stable. It is absolutely true that affinity towards North Indian culture, language and tradition has been used as an excuse to discriminate against Madhesis. The idea of One Madhes, One Pradesh and Hindi as one of the national languages is partly a backlash against such a mindset. That is understandable. The backlash has served its purpose. It is has given a much-needed confidence to Madhesi youths. What we do not want is the backlash leading to a politically-unstable Tarai belt. That will hurt all of us, including those that identify themselves as Madhesis.
As we move forward to write a new constitution and build a network to govern, it is important to keep in mind our objective. Our objective is to devise a society where the rule of law is upheld; where powers are assigned in such a way that one group cannot suppress the other. What we do not want is empowerment of one group at the expense of others.
All of us are better off with a politically-stable Nepal. The surest way to achieve this is by devising a model that satisfies the largest population of Nepalis—One Madhes, One Pradesh fails to do so while linguistic federalism does.
(Writer is an Assistant Professor of Economics and Finance at Texas A&M International University in Texas, USA.)
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