This offers a huge political respite to the country, embroiled as it has been for over two decades in a simmering multipolar battle between the democrats, Maoists and regional extremists, and most recently, ravaged by two destructive earthquakes on April 25 and May 12. The agreement further enjoys the backing of several other parties in the CA, propelling the level of support to well above 90 percent.Look at the turn of events since then. The four signatories endorsed the agreement in their respective parties the very next day. United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon swiftly hailed the agreement. Nepal's international friends issued a positive statement in Kathmandu to encourage political parties to continue the good work. And on June 10, the CA, long out of business owing to political differences, convened and sent remaining disputed issues to its Constitutional Political Dialogue and Consensus Committee (CPDCC). From there, Committee Chair and Maoist leader Baburam Bhattarai next day presented a unanimous report to a full CA session, which gave business to the Constitution Drafting Committee.
The constitution making process has further gathered pace with the Drafting Committee on June 14 formally beginning to pen the first draft of the constitution. The committee, mandated to finish its work in two weeks, is working at war footing at this moment. Minor disagreements that surface during the sub-panel debates would be resolved quickly at CPDCC so long as major parties stand firm behind the agreement. Then, the full session of the Constituent Assembly would deliberate on the first draft. One more week and the people of Nepal would get to see and express opinion on the constitution that they were dreaming about. This incredible speed of work, unimaginable until a month ago, leaves many political pundits, and even several actors, flustered.
The agreement is historic in many ways. It brings back the climate of mutual trust—and this time not so brittle—by building upon the gains of previous negotiations. It not only winds up the era of disagreement among major political actors, but also lays the foundation to realizing the dream of a constitution through Constituent Assembly elected by the people. It takes into account the long and arduous work put into constitution writing since the 12-point agreement in 2005. Denying 16-point agreement a fair chance of success means Nepal will not have a stable political environment in the foreseeable future.
The next month, therefore, is going to be extremely crucial for Nepal's constitutional process. The four parties, learning from historical mistakes, must continue to demonstrate a spirit of unity to shield the deal from challenges.
The deal faces two kinds of challenges. The first one, which is more evident but less significant, comes from the four (after the recent unity of three opposition parties) fringe parties of the Constituent Assembly. Why this challenge is nearly irrelevant can be extrapolated from a simple political calculation. These parties simply lack the kind of numbers to disrupt or influence the CA's outcome. With just 35 seats in hand, less than six percent of the CA's strength, their running hither and thither has already been reduced to a farce. Anyone perceived as siding with them today should be prepared to wear a spoiler's reputation. Public opinion all over the country, from Himal to Tarai, from Mechi to Mahakali, is firmly in favor of new constitution without any more delay.
Another reason why the dissenting parties hardly matter is evident from their action against what they have said recently. They went to the election asking votes so that they could draft a new constitution. Now that the new constitution is being made, they have lined up in the wrong side of the line. These sporadic voices are now loud. But when a point comes when the larger parties deploy themselves in defense of their action, these smaller groups can easily shown to be anti-constitution.
In a show of desperation, which probably makes no difference, they have dragged the legality of the agreement to Supreme Court. Even the Office of the President was almost pulled into political mudslinging.
In this part of the world, political groups facing existential crisis pretend as if they are able to punch above their weight, play victim and cry foul. This helps to mask their real strength for some time. At the end of the day, their inability to reinvent themselves pushes these parties to extinction. One needs to turn to the Maoist party led by Mohan Baidya for an example.
Apparently, the dissenting parties seem to understand their limitations very well. Their representatives in the thematic sub-committees of the Constitution Drafting Committee are part of the drafting process. The strategy appears to be to cooperate with the process while demanding immediate settlement of the federalism issue. Larger parties would allow them to jump up and down for a while, and engage them when they are tired. The sooner that they realize they won't get anything without completely reconciling with the 16-point agreement, the better for them and everyone else.
The second and a more daunting challenge could come from within the signatories. Certain NC and UML leaders, despite no serious differences in substance, appear to have developed insecurity at the way the deal came out. They may end up playing into hands of the 'Regional Actor' operatives, perceived by many in Nepal as the ones standing behind some dissenting Madheshi parties.
Containing the spoilers who will be baying for blood when they sense any lack of resolve among the four signatories will not be easy. They can be forced to surrender only through collective action. The mantra for the four major parties right now should be: stay united and try to engage with all actors.
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