The widening war in the Middle East has created deep anxiety for Nepal. The exchange of attacks between Iran and US-Israeli forces has raised fears of a broader and longer regional conflict. For Nepal, the concern runs along two lines. The first is the safety of millions of Nepalis working in the Gulf. The second is the economic shock that may follow from rising oil prices and disrupted trade routes. Around 1.9 million Nepalis live and work across the Gulf, Israel and nearby regions. Most of them are migrant workers employed in construction, trucking, hotels and restaurants, security services and domestic work. Their labour sustains families at home and contributes significantly to the country's economy through the money they send back. The latest attacks have brought the conflict dangerously close to places where these workers live. Iran has launched missiles at American bases located in several Gulf countries. If such retaliation expands, many Nepalis could face attacks that put their lives at risk. This possibility has created fear among migrant workers, as airspace shutdowns, missile alerts and escalating tensions have intensified anxiety. Workers are worried about their safety, jobs and salaries.
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Besides keeping its embassies on standby to extend all necessary assistance, the government needs to activate its special cell in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to closely monitor the unfolding situation. Embassies should update the contact details of Nepali nationals and maintain constant communication with them. Moreover, diplomatic missions must coordinate with host governments to ensure that migrant workers have access to shelters in the event of attacks. If certain areas become insecure, Nepal must be ready to take immediate measures to evacuate its nationals. The war also poses a serious threat to the economy. The Middle East lies at the centre of global oil supply, and any disruption in the region quickly pushes oil prices upward. Prices have already climbed from around 67 dollars per barrel to about 100 dollars per barrel in a matter of days. The conflict threatens oil production facilities and shipping routes. The Strait of Hormuz, one of the busiest oil transport corridors in the world, could also face restrictions if tensions escalate. For Nepal, which imports all its petroleum through India, a rise in oil prices triggers a chain reaction. Transport costs rise first, followed by increases in production and distribution costs. Eventually, the prices of daily goods move upward. Besides price hikes, there is also the risk of market manipulation at home. Traders may try to exploit the fluid situation and public fear by creating artificial shortages or raising prices without justification.
The government must keep a watchful eye on supply and prices to prevent the emergence of black markets. Nepal also has limited fuel storage capacity and can store petroleum products for only about two weeks. This means the country could face difficulties if supply routes are disrupted. The conflict also threatens remittance flows. About 41 percent of Nepal's remittances come from Middle Eastern countries. If businesses slow down or construction projects stop due to security concerns, many migrant workers could lose their jobs. For Nepal, the message is clear: the safety of Nepalis working in the Gulf must remain the top priority. At the same time, the government must prepare to tackle economic pressures caused by rising oil prices and disrupted supply routes. A distant war can quickly affect Nepal through the lives of migrant workers and the price of fuel at home. The government must therefore act early to protect both.
