KATHMANDU, July 18: Nepal’s decade-long experiment with federalism is facing its most severe existential crisis, driven by the very traditional political custodians who championed its constitutional inception. A profound paradox currently defines the country's political landscape. When the ruling Rastriya Swatantra Party questioned the utility and financial viability of provincial assemblies during its First General Convention, the traditional political establishment—comprising the Nepali Congress (NC), the CPN-UML, and the Nepali Communist Party (NCP)—united in a chorus of fierce institutional defense. Yet, away from the rhetoric of the capital, these same traditional parties are actively dismantling the credibility of the provincial system. Driven by an insatiable appetite for power and shifting mathematical equations in Kathmandu, they have reduced regional administrations to mere chess pieces, instigating a relentless cycle of government overthrows that threatens to render the entire federal structure obsolete.
The core vulnerability of Nepal's provincial governance lies in its absolute subordination to federal power plays. Rather than operating as autonomous tiers of government closer to the citizenry, provincial ministries have been treated as consolidation prizes or collateral damage whenever alliances shift in the federal parliament. Since the 2022 Provincial Elections, the seven provinces have collectively resembled a revolving door of opportunistic coalitions, yielding brief tenures for chief ministers, abandoned budgets, and paralyzed administrative machineries. Traditional parties, weakened by the results of the recent House of Representatives (HoR) Elections, have failed to use their regional footprints to demonstrate the value of local governance. Instead, they have opted for a continuous scramble for executive portfolios, bending parliamentary ethics, party bylaws, and constitutional provisions to capture temporary leadership.
Madhesh Province: Five governments
The tragedy of this perpetual political maneuvering is most acutely visible in Madhesh Province, a region historically at the vanguard of the federalist movement. In less than four years following the 2022 elections, Madhesh has seen five successive governments rise and fall. In an assembly of 107 seats, down currently to 103 active members due to resignations and suspensions, no single party holds a decisive mandate, making a coalition mandatory. The largest entity, Janata Samajbadi Party (JSP) Nepal, holds 28 seats following its merger with the Loktantrik Samajbadi Party (LSP), followed by CPN-UML with 23 seats, the NC with 22, and the NCP with 15. The remainder of the assembly is fragmented among smaller factions like Janamat Party, Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP), and Nagarik Unmukti Party (NUP). This extreme fragmentation has institutionalized a culture where smaller factions constantly leverage their positions, withdrawing support the moment their immediate sectarian interests are unmet.
The political trajectory of Madhesh underscores this instability. The initial post-election government, led by Chief Minister Saroj Kumar Yadav of the JSP, managed to survive for a year and a half before being swallowed by federal political realignment. When the federal coalition shifted, major parties withdrew their support, triggering the dissolution of Yadav's cabinet. This made way for Chief Minister Satish Kumar Singh of the Janamat Party in June 2024, backed by a fragile 55-member coalition. However, internal rifts within the Janamat Party, compounded by regional shifts following widespread civil unrest, collapsed Singh's administration.
The subsequent appointment of LSP leader Jitendra Sonal as Chief Minister proved equally ephemeral, ending abruptly when he resigned ahead of a floor vote after realizing his coalition had evaporated. The subsequent controversial appointment of UML leader Saroj Yadav as Chief Minister by the provincial chief triggered mass protests and a Supreme Court intervention, which ruled the appointment unconstitutional and forced his resignation within a month. Currently, Chief Minister Krishna Yadav of the NC holds the top office in Madhesh, having secured the position with the backing of UML and the NCP. However, less than eight months into his tenure, rumors of an impending leadership coup have already paralyzed his cabinet, preventing ministers from focusing on public welfare.
Bagmati Province: Three governments since 2022
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The administrative decay is no less severe in Bagmati Province, where the provincial capital has seen non-stop political friction since its inception. The instability dates back to the first provincial assembly term when Chief Minister Dor Mani Poudel of the UML served for 41 months before being ousted due to internal party fractures that led to the creation of the then CPN (Unified Socialist). His successor, Chief Minister Asta Laxmi Shakya, held office for less than three months before losing her majority, paving the way for Chief Minister Rajendra Prasad Pandey through a federal-level alliance.
The 2022 elections brought no stability, marking three government changes in this term alone. Chief Minister Shalikram Jamkattel of the NCP initially took charge with an overwhelming majority of 105 votes in the 110-member assembly. Yet, within a year, successive withdrawals of support by alliance partners forced him to undergo multiple confidence votes, ultimately leading to his ouster when the federal alignment between NC and UML shifted.
The current governance in Bagmati, led by Chief Minister Indra Bahadur Baniya of the NC, highlights the logistical absurdities of these power struggles. Baniya assumed office following internal party upheaval that ousted the previous NC Chief Minister, Bahadur Singh Lama, after Lama lost an internal party vote. To project an image of fiscal responsibility and streamline administrative costs, the Baniya government recently slashed the number of provincial ministries from fourteen down to eight. However, the realities of coalition mathematics quickly caught up with this reform. Because the administration needed to satisfy the ambitions of numerous provincial assembly members from both NC and the UML to preserve its majority, six appointed ministers have been left entirely without portfolios. They draw state salaries and benefits while holding no administrative responsibilities, illustrating how institutional reforms are frequently hollowed out by the necessity of political appeasement.
Gandaki Province: Four governments and 18 cabinet reshuffles
In Gandaki Province, the regional assembly has devolved into an arena of litigation and extreme factionalism, experiencing four distinct governments and eighteen separate cabinet reorganizations within a four-year window. The political tug-of-war between Chief Minister Khagaraj Adhikari of the UML and Chief Minister Surendra Raj Pandey of the NC has repeatedly stalled governance. Adhikari's initial coalition collapsed within three months, leading to Pandey’s ascension as Chief Minister.
When federal ties ruptured, Pandey attempted to preserve his government by bringing in controversial independent provincial assembly members like Rajeev Gurung, widely known as Deepak Manange, to fill ministerial slots. Subsequent constitutional overreaches by the Adhikari faction forced the conflict into the Supreme Court, which ultimately restored Pandey to the chief minister’s office. Today, despite an ongoing power-sharing agreement to split the remaining term between NC and UML, a fresh decision by the central NC leadership to reconsider its alliance with the UML has thrown Gandaki back into total uncertainty, with the UML openly preparing to align with the NCP to force a fifth government and swap out the executive team and ministers.
Lumbini Province: Four governments
Lumbini Province mirrors this script of chronic vulnerability, witnessing four governments rise and fall since the last regional elections. The post-2022 period began with Chief Minister Leela Giri of the CPN-UML taking the oath of office, only to see his government collapse within months as the central leadership shifted alignments. Chief Minister Dilli Bahadur Chaudhary of the NC then took the reins for an eleven-month stint, which ended abruptly when the NCP pivoted back to the UML, installed Chief Minister Jokh Bahadur Mahara, and subsequently abandoned him a few months later.
The current administration under Chief Minister Chet Narayan Acharya of the UML survives solely on the life support of the current NC-UML federal understanding. While the local NC chapter recently faced intense pressure from its central leadership to recall its ministers and initiate a fresh collapse, regional party leaders have temporarily resisted, warning that breaking the alliance would completely delegitimize the party's standing and force them into desperate alignments with fringe elements.
Karnali Province: Transitioning to its fifth government
The crisis has now moved squarely toward Karnali Province, which is currently preparing for its fifth government since the 2022 elections. In Karnali, a province already burdened by severe geographical isolation and poverty, governance has historically been sabotaged by bitter personal rivalries, notably between Mahendra Bahadur Shahi and Yam Lal Kandel.
The current Chief Minister, Yamlal Kandel of the UML, recently saw his cabinet gutted when four NC ministers resigned en masse, accusing him of violating a gentleman's agreement to hand over power after the passage of the fiscal budget. NC and NCP provincial assembly members have already registered a formal no-confidence motion against Kandel, ensuring that Jiwan Bahadur Shahi of the NC will likely take over as the province's next leader and reappoint a new batch of ministers within days.
Sudurpashchim Province: Preparing for its fifth government
In Sudurpashchim Province, political instability highlights how central alliances dictate local governance, pushing the region toward its fifth government setup. Following a fragmented 2022 mandate in the 53-member assembly, no single party secured a majority, leaving the region highly vulnerable to shifting alignments in Kathmandu. The province's first post-election administration under Chief Minister Rajendra Rawal of the UML collapsed within a month when the NUP withheld its crucial seven-seat support during a confidence vote. Power then shifted to Chief Minister Kamal Bahadur Shah of the NC, who briefly stabilized his position before a central fracture between NC and the NCP forced his resignation.
The cycle of volatility accelerated when Chief Minister Dirgha Bahadur Sodari of the then Unified Socialist took charge in April 2024, only to be forced out three months later when the UML withdrew support to facilitate a new national alignment. Currently, Kamal Bahadur Shah is back for a second tenure as Chief Minister under a fresh NC-UML partnership. However, the unified NCP's recent decision to withdraw its legislative support has once again stripped the ruling coalition of its stable majority, plunging Sudurpashchim back into late-night horse-trading to secure the loyalty of fractured factions and fringe independent provincial assembly members to rebuild the cabinet.
Koshi Province: Six completed governments, seeking a seventh
Ultimately, Koshi Province stands as the most damning indictment of this systemic failure, currently staring down the barrel of its seventh government iteration since the last election. The province has exhausted every conceivable constitutional mechanism, experiencing multiple tenures under Chief Minister Hikmat Kumar Karki, short-lived setups under Chief Minister Uddhav Thapa that were repeatedly declared unconstitutional by the Supreme Court due to illegal voting practices, and a rebellious minority experiment under Chief Minister Kedar Karki.
While the current administration under Hikmat Karki has provided a temporary two-year lull, the underlying friction of the NC-UML alliance has left the transition of power highly volatile. The mathematical reality of the 93-member Koshi assembly means that no clean, stable ideological partnership can exist without buying the loyalty of microscopic parties. This persistent degradation of the democratic process across all seven regions reveals a dangerous truth: by treating federalism as a vehicle for personal ambition rather than a mechanism for decentralized empowerment, the traditional political class is actively orchestrating the demise of the very system they claim to protect.
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